NYC Election Map: How Mamdani’s Ranked-Choice Strategy Beat Cuomo

The results certified this week from New York City’s mayoral primary election provide the clearest picture yet — down to each voter’s ranked-choice ballot — of how Assemblyman Zohran Mamdani pulled off a major upset over former Gov. Andrew M. Cuomo. Here’s what the ballots show.

A majority of voters didn’t rank Cuomo

Share of ballots that did not rank Cuomo, by neighborhood

Opponents of Mr. Cuomo, who had resigned as governor in scandal, ran an unusual campaign urging voters to leave him off their ballots altogether. They called it DREAM, or Don’t Rank Evil Andrew for Mayor. It appears to have had success. Although Mr. Cuomo placed second overall in the race, 54 percent of voters did not put him on their ballots at all. These voters were concentrated in Manhattan and the parts of Brooklyn and Queens closest to it, like Williamsburg, Astoria and Brooklyn Heights.

Share of ballots that ranked each candidate, regardless of position

Candidate Share% Number of ballots
59.6%
58.9%
54.0%
45.7%
40.1%

The “don’t rank” campaign was so successful that Brad Lander and Adrienne Adams, two candidates who received far fewer first-choice votes than Mr. Cuomo, were ranked on more ballots overall than the former governor.

Brad Lander was the most popular second choice

Under the city’s ranked-choice voting system, voters were allowed to list up to five candidates in order of preference. Mr. Lander, the city comptroller, was the most common second choice on ballots throughout the city after he and Mr. Mamdani cross-endorsed each other.

The maps above suggest this strategy worked. Mr. Lander was an overwhelmingly popular second choice throughout the city, but he was an especially strong No. 2 in gentrifying neighborhoods where Mr. Mamdani won in Brooklyn and Queens, like Williamsburg, Bedford-Stuyvesant and Astoria.

Supporters of Mr. Cuomo most commonly ranked nobody as their second choice, followed by Ms. Adams, the City Council speaker. Voters were especially likely to rank Ms. Adams second in southeast Queens, her political home.

Cuomo-only ballots were popular, but far from enough

Share of ballots that only ranked Cuomo, by neighborhood

The single most common ranked-choice ballot cast in the mayoral primary was for Mr. Cuomo alone. More than 176,000 Democrats, or 16 percent of voters, cast ballots that listed only Mr. Cuomo, about four times the number of people who cast ballots that listed only Mr. Mamdani. Some of these voters ranked Mr. Cuomo several times on their ballots.

Cuomo-only ballots were especially popular in the South Bronx, southern Brooklyn and southeastern Queens.

Most common ballots cast by voters

The most popular rankings by primary voters either selected only Cuomo or excluded him entirely.

2.  Blank

3.  Blank

4.  Blank

5.  Blank

The general election will not use ranked-choice ballots, so the candidate with the most votes wins.

Leave a Comment